Welcome to Selection Monday! What a day this always is. Lots of anticipation, certainly some nervousness amongst the teams sitting on the bubble, and a lot of excitement. There are always questions as to where teams are going, and I thought D3hoops.com put together a solid projected bracket for the women’s tournament late last night. You can check that out here and take a look at where your team might be headed! Emphasis on the might. We aren’t in the room with the committee figuring out the bracket, so it’s somewhat of a guess as to how this will all play out. The 500-mile rule allows for quite a bit of flexibility, especially on the East Coast, and to a degree, within the midwest. So that makes putting together a mock bracket tough, and even more so when you start to consider general seeding and variables with second-weekend pods, something the committee has to take into account. All while somewhat minimizing flights and still making it a true national tournament. It certainly makes you appreciate the heavy lifting the committee has to do to make this all work with the cross-region matchups and the forward thinking with second-weekend pods and such…it isn’t an easy job by any means!
All of that said, I put together a mock bracket of my own. There are some similarities to the one you’ll see on D3hoops.com and some differences, and I don’t expect to be spot-on with a ton of these (set the bar low, right??). Maybe the hosts? But there are even a few question marks there. We’ll all find out the bracket soon enough, but in the meantime, I wanted to challenge myself to see what I could come up with!
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Notes:
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A team highlighted in yellow indicates a first weekend flight.
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A row highlighted with light orange indicates a guaranteed second weekend flight for the winner of that respective pod.
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A team listed in bold lettering is a No. 2 seed that will host the first weekend due to priority/geography.
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The 64-team field I used is comprised off the 42 Pool A bids along with our 21 projected Pool C bids from last night’s Selection Show on Hoopsville, and our projected Pool B bid.
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Watch the Hoopsville Selection Show here! Dave did a great job putting it together and the conversations were both valuable and insightful. The women’s panel starts towards the second half of the show.
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NYU Quadrant
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I have NYU as the top overall seed, and worked to construct this quadrant with that in mind. NYU will be on the road for the opening weekend as I expect the NYU men to host, and that pod will be contested at the No. 2 seed in the pod, Gettysburg. St. John Fisher and PSU-Harrisburg, AQs out of the Empire 8 and UEC, are also there.
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CNU hosts Marymount, Shenandoah, and Chatham in the opening weekend, giving us three different regions in one pod, which I like to see, especially as you go further south.
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Catholic, Trinity (CT), Ohio Northern, and Occidental all end up in a pod….who would’ve thought? Not sure this one will come close to happening but the OAC teams need to go east and this one is within driving distance for ONU. Trinity can also get down to Baltimore from Hartford (344 miles), and Occidental needs to fly somewhere anyways.
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Our Region 10 pod is also included in this quadrant. Wasn’t exactly sure what to do but in the spirit of creativity and not repeating the same bracketing from two years ago (when the Texas pod winner was sent to Transylvania), I sent the winner of this Hardin-Simmons, UMHB, Trinity (TX), Millsaps pod to NYU. This is in part because this winner is likely to be the lowest advancing seed (obviously not considering upsets here) and it seems that if the NCAA needs to fly somebody to NYU, they’ll try to put a lower seed there. As I should point out, UMHB will host rather than HSU on the first weekend, as Millsaps can get to Belton, Texas. They cannot get to Abilene, Texas. In an effort to save a flight, I think the committee chooses to go this route.
Bowdoin Quadrant
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Bowdoin is on the same side of the bracket as NYU, which may or may not happen. I personally think the committee may want to put NYU and Transylvania + Rhode Island College on different sides of the bracket, which leaves only one option to keep on NYU’s side: Bowdoin.
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Bowdoin’s opening weekend pod has two Region 4, a Region 1, and a Region 3. Not too bad. Vassar, New Jersey City, and Brooklyn can all get to Bowdoin, and it creates some unique matchups, which is something we know the committee is looking to do.
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UW-Oshkosh’s pod is here in this quadrant and will be a second-weekend flight regardless of who wins that one. Midwest bracketing was tough because there are so many multi-bid leagues in that part of the country. So I split up the three CCIWs, the three WIACS, and the two MIAAs, which is seen here. Illinois Wesleyan ends up in Oshkosh’s pod as the No. 2 seed and Trine is the No. 3 seed. Wisconsin Lutheran is the No. 4 seed here, as the AQ out of the NACC.
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Scranton is here too, and is within driving distance of Bowdoin should the Lady Royals advance. I also got Baldwin Wallace, Messiah, and PSU-Behrend to this pod, so we have two Region 5s and two Region 7s. But no head-to-head matchups between these teams, which is necessary to consider in these conversations with bracketing.
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Smith’s pod is my fourth in this quadrant. Three of the teams are within driving distance of Bowdoin, and it was tough to find a pod for Western New England where they weren’t facing an opponent they had played earlier this year. So WNE ends up here. DeSales can drive to Bowdoin if they win this pod, and I flew in Puget Sound to make it a little bit more interesting with a true West Coast-to-East Coast scenario here.
Rhode Island College Quadrant
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Rhode Island College is aiming at a return trip to the Final Four and has been unstoppable so far. I put together a somewhat tough first weekend pod for the Anchorwomen but it is reasonable, I think. We drive up Johns Hopkins from Baltimore and fly in Willamette from Salem, Oregon. Maine Maritime can get here easily and this is important because Maine Maritime has already played Bowdoin and Bates, so I didn’t want to put them there. We have solid, clear seeds here, one flight, and four regions represented. Of course, this is predicated on the committee actually picking Willamette as a Pool C.
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Bates hosts a pod too, with Springfield, Framingham State, and Mount St. Vincent. Still have three regions here even with a more uninteresting pod!
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SUNY New Paltz is in this quadrant with UMass-Dartmouth, St. Joseph’s College of Maine and get this, Southern Virginia. We get a Region 6 team to a pod with a Region 3, Region 2, and Region 1 team. It’s 470 miles from Southern Virginia to SUNY New Paltz and makes for a cool No. 1/No. 4 seed matchup.
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Wartburg’s pod is the guaranteed second-weekend flight here. Not much of a way around it. Wartburg hosts UW-Stout, Concordia (MN), and Ripon. Concordia can’t get anywhere else, so the Cobbers are headed to Waverly, Iowa. I think Stout ends up at Wartburg too, as they can’t go to the pods at UW-Oshkosh or UW-Whitewater, and the pod at Carroll is full. Stout is within somewhat close proximity to Wartburg, and certainly closer than, say, Hope. Not that it matters much. I think I was able to get four different seeds here (as opposed to a No. 1 seed, a No. 2 seed, and two No. 3 seeds or something like that), which is good, considering the geography and conference rematches came into play a lot with the Midwest.
Transylvania Quadrant
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Transylvania gets a Top 4 overall seed and will host the second weekend. But this quadrant by far was my toughest one, and the one I feel the least confident in. Geography factors into this, obviously. Looking towards the second weekend, I have two Top 5 overall seeds here, which feels unlikely. But at the same time, I don’t know how much the committee will want/need to save on flights here. Whitewater can bus to Transy, whereas Oshkosh cannot. So Whitewater might be a good option here, even if it makes it a very strong quadrant. Additionally, Carroll can get here from the Midwest, so no flight again. Again, I’ve already got three guaranteed second-weekend flights, and I’m hesitant to bet on the committee going with four guaranteed second-weekend flights. So that creates a situation where Whitewater and Carroll are both headed to Lexington, Kentucky in the case that both win their respective opening-weekend pods. Washington & Lee is also hosting (more on that in a second), and W&L can drive to Transylvania as well, so no flight needed here if W&L advances. Emory can also bus to Transylvania as is the No. 2 seed in that pod.
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Why is W&L hosting a pod? Well, as we briefly discussed on Hoopsville last night, it would be a gauntlet for Emory and DePauw to have to meet in the first round of the tournament at the Transy pod. But both teams are limited by geography. Transy is the obvious host for both. In an effort to avoid this scenario, I moved a pod to W&L, which allows for Emory and DePauw to both be true No. 2 seeds in their respective pods. W&L was already on the fringe of hosting to begin with, so this doesn’t feel like it’s too far outside the box. And we can get Marietta and Widener to the W&L pod, so there’s two cross-region first round matchups, which is awesome.
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Transylvania’s pod now includes DePauw, WashU, and Berea (Pool B qualifier). WashU is an interesting one, as the Bears would normally be seeded in the Midwest. But those pods are crowded, and WashU can get to Transy (347 miles apart). This makes a lot of sense, and creates a strong pod that is still reasonable even with the geographical challenges.
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Carroll hosts a Midwest pod comprised of themselves, Hope, and Loras. There’s always the chance Illinois Wesleyan hosts, but I feel good about Carroll being ahead of IWU in the hosting conversation. Hope and Loras add two different regions (Region 7 and Region 9), while also allowing for the multi-bid conferences to be split up. The only way we’d need a second weekend flight from this pod is if Loras won it. And as it stands right now, we’re not even sure Loras is getting into the tournament field. Hope, Webster, and Carroll can all get to Transylvania by bus.
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Whitewater hosts Gustavus Adolphus, Millikin, and Minnesota Morris in a first weekend pod, which gives us two different regions and some variation in the opponents. It would certainly be a tough pod, maybe one of the toughest in the field, but makes sense with the geography and trying to avoid rematches. We shall see, but I think Minnesota-Morris ends up at Whitewater, and I expect Gustavus Adolphus will have a tough draw wherever the Gusties end up. Millikin, led by Elyce Knudsen, is always a tough out. As far as getting to Transy, Millikin can get there (as well as Whitewater, but Gustavus cannot. Neither can Minnesota Morris.
That wraps this up…again, do not take this as any sort of concrete information to where your team might be headed…but it’s any idea and an attempt at predicting how things might turn around. It is always fun to see the bracket revealed and it is crazy how one difference in teams (say, Ohio Wesleyan is in and Loras is out) could completely change the bracket across the country. Be sure to tune into the selection show at 2:30 p.m. ET today on NCAA.com. I’ll have a short reaction to the tournament field announcement this evening, most likely, so stay tuned for that! Thank you to everyone who continues to follow my coverage of D3 women’s hoops and I hope this newsletter provides value to the readers, whether they be a coach, student-athlete, fan, or administrator. As I said on Hoopsville last night, the state of D3 women’s basketball is really strong right now with so many teams on the rise, and it just makes this tournament more and more fun each year! Enjoy the selection show today and don’t hesitate to reach out with questions/comments/feedback.
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