Welcome to Final Four week! The last four teams still standing in the 2024 NCAA Tournament are set to descend upon Columbus, Ohio with the national semifinals tipping off on Thursday.
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Semifinal Preview: Smith vs Wartburg
It’s a unique matchup in Columbus, where the A-R-C champ and the NEWMAC champ essentially meet in the middle in central Ohio. While both have reached the Final Four in recent memory, neither program has ever appeared in the national title game. Obviously, that will change for one of these two teams later this week. History is in the making!
Of Note
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This marks Smith’s second Final Four appearance in program history, with the first coming last season. Smith fell to eventual national champ, Transylvania, in the national semifinals in Hartford, CT.
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Smith is one of two teams making its second-straight Final Four appearance, with Transylvania being the other.
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Wartburg is here for the third time in program history, all of which have come under head coach Bob Amsberry and his staff.
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Wartburg has previously made Final Four appearances in 2016 and 2018.
A look at the offenses
Scoring | Smith: 77.2 ppg | Wartburg: 69.8 ppg
FG% | Smith: 49.5% | Wartburg: 42.1%
Assists | Smith: 15.3 assists/game | Wartburg: 15.2 assists/game
Smith’s Jessie Ruffner is the most dynamic offensive weapon the Pioneers have, as the senior has scored 23 or more points in each of her last three NCAA Tournament games.
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She has stepped up significantly for Smith this season, especially as the Pioneers lost Morgan Morrison and Katelyn Pickunka from last year’s Final Four squad. Ruffner is averaging 31.8 minutes per game overall, and 37.0 minutes/game in the NCAA Tournament.
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A 5-foot-8 guard, Ruffner primarily scores inside of the 3-point arc (or at the free throw line where she shoots 78.1%), and is one of the main reasons why Smith ranks No. 1 in the nation in field goal percentage, as she converts on 59.3% of her shots.
But don’t forget about Ally Yamada and Sofia Rosa, who have been equally key in Smith’s tournament run. Along with Ruffner, the trio has started all 32 games this season.
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Yamada, a native of Seal Beach, California, is the only other player on the roster averaging at least 30 minutes per game (30.6). She was limited offensively against Oshkosh and Bowdoin in the Sectionals, but averages 14.1 points per game.
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She is also Smith’s top 3-point shooter, at 41.6% (94-of-226) from beyond the arc.
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Rosa, a transfer from Tufts who spent last year as a grad assistant on the coaching staff at MIT, has been an impact addition for Smith and averages 13.5 points and 7.3 rebounds per game. A forward, Rosa brings a quality post presence to the Pioneers’ starting lineup.
Wartburg was led into the Final Four by senior forward Jaedon Murphy, who scored 23 points to help lift the Knights past Washington & Lee in the Elite Eight. That came on the heels of a 14-point performance against Bates, as Murphy played 30+ minutes in both victories.
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Her outside shooting presence is key as a 6’0 forward who is converting on 32% of her 3-point attempts (59-of-183). She was 5-of-9 from 3 against W&L.
Fifth-year senior guard Macy Harris is at the center of Wartburg’s offense, as the team’s point guard and will be a tough matchup for Smith. She scored the game-winner against Bates in the Sweet 16 and also leads the Knights in assists, with 101.
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An efficient shooter, Harris shoots 49.3 percent from the field. She also has the Wartburg record for career games played, with 130.
Sara Faber enters the Final Four for Wartburg with five straight double-digit scoring performances. The senior is tied with Murphy in minutes per game (26.4) and shoots the ball well from pretty much everywhere on the floor. But I think where she could be very valuable in this context is at free throw line.
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She and Harris are the Knights’ top two free throw shooters and in what should be a tight game, making the most of your trips to the line is critical. Harris shoots 82.6 percent and Faber is at 75.7 percent. She also has the most made free throws of anyone on the team (87) and is 11-of-13 at the charity stripe in the NCAA Tournament.
A look at the defenses
Points allowed per game | Smith: 56.7 ppg | Wartburg: 54.1 ppg
Turnovers forced per game | Smith: 14.2 | Wartburg: 17.8
Opponent FG% | Smith: 38% | Wartburg: 36.7%
Wartburg comes off a strong showing against Washington & Lee, who behind Mary Schleusner’s heroics, took down Catholic and Rhode Island College in previous two rounds of the tournament. Schleusner still finished the tournament as one of this season’s most outstanding players without question, but the Knights found a way to slow her down early. That proved key, as Wartburg jumped out to a 37-25 halftime lead and was able to sustain a big third-quarter run from the Generals in a 68-58 win.
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In each of Wartburg’s last three NCAA Tournament games, against Illinois Wesleyan, Bates, and W&L, the Knights have held their opponent below 60 points.
Smith put on a defensive clinic against Bowdoin, even with Bowdoin playing at home, in the Elite Eight. The Pioneers came away with a low-scoring, 52-47 win over the Polar Bears. Bowdoin scored in single digits in two of the four quarters.
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Sydney Jones, who was averaging 16.2 points for Bowdoin, had just six points on a 3-for-11 shooting day. It was impressive to see Smith challenge Jones, who is so good with the ball in her hands, for all 36 minutes Jones was on the floor.
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Bowdoin ended up shooting 19-of-54 (35.2%) from the field and a mere 3-of-19 (15.8%) from 3-point range.
While Smith doesn’t rank especially high in turnovers forced per game, steals per game, or blocks per game, the Pioneers are very disciplined defensively and force tough shots. Plain and simple. That is especially true when it comes to Smith’s 3-point defense.
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Opponents are shooting just 29% from beyond the arc against the Pioneers. I should be noted that UW-Oshkosh was the exception, as the Titans went 11-of-25 from 3 in the Sweet 16 against Smith. That is the only time this season Smith has allowed 10 or more 3-pointers in a single game.
Wartburg has been one of the better teams I’ve seen this season with utilizing defensive pressure as a means to push the ball in transition. The Knights force an average of 17.2 turnovers per game, but even more impressive, they average 18.4 points off turnovers per contest. Wartburg capitalizes on those takeaways on the defensive end and often scores in transition, wearing down the opponent.
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That said, Wartburg has shown great versatility in its style, with the ability to push the pace in transition, as I’m talking about above, but also the ability to slow things down off of forced turnovers and control the pace. That is incredibly key and I expect we will see that against Smith.
The Bottom Line
I think defense will decide this game. It’s a strength for both teams and we’ve seen it throughout this season, particularly in this NCAA Tournament. From Wartburg slowing down W&L and Mary Schleusner to Smith limiting Sydney Jones to just six points in the Elite Eight, both defenses are locked in and battle-tested. Open shots will not come easily, and I would fully expect it to be the type of game where the first team to 60 points wins. Watch for the matchup between Smith’s offense and Wartburg’s defense…I think that has the potential to decide a lot. Smith has one of the most efficient offenses in the country. But Wartburg’s defense has been incredibly consistent as of late.